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Essays

The China Hangover Is Here.

New York Times, August 19,  2024.

Countering Chinese Aggression in the South China Sea.

War on the Rocks, July 23, 2024.

How Primed for War Is China? 

Foreign Policy, February 4, 2024.

A Peaceful Solution on Taiwan Is Slipping Away.

New York Times, January 17, 2024.

Delusions of Detente: Why American and China Will Be Enduring Rivals.

Foreign Affairs, September/October 2023.

No One Should Want to See a Dictator Get Old

New York Times, August 15, 2023.

A More Hawkish China Policy? 

The Conversation, March 2, 2023. 

Accepting a Cold War with China Is the Best Option.

Washington Examiner, December 6, 2022. 

China's Growing Threat to Global Democracy  

Journal of Democracy, January 2023. 

The Return of Pax Americana? Putin's War Is Fortifying the Democratic Alliance.

Foreign Affairs, March 14, 2022.

Enemies of My Enemy: How Fear of China Is Forging a New World Order.  

Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2022.

Washington Is Preparing for the Wrong War with China.  

Foreign Affairs, December 16, 2021.

What Will Drive China to War?

The Atlantic, November 1, 2021.

The End of China’s Rise.  

Foreign Affairs, October 1, 2021.

China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem.  

Foreign Policy, September 24, 2021.

  • Winner: Best Long Read Article of the Year, Foreign Policy.

America Is Not Ready for a War with China.  

Foreign Affairs, June 10, 2021.

America Needs to Rediscover Strategic MacGyverism.  

National Interest, March 27, 2021. 

Challenges Facing Democracy in the United States.  

International Affairs Forum, February 26, 2021.

Rogue Superpower: Why This Could Be an Illiberal American Century.  

Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020.

  • Selected as one of the 10 best print articles of 2020 by Foreign Affairs.  

  • Runner Up: Best Policy Article on U.S. Foreign Policy and Grand Strategy, American in the World Consortium, a partnership among University of Texas and Duke and Johns Hopkins Universities.

Competition with China Could Be Short and Sharp.  

Foreign Affairs, December 17, 2020.

China Keeps Inching Closer to Taiwan.  

Foreign Policy, October 19, 2020.

How Will China Shape Global Governance?

ChinaFile, May 9, 2020.

In Future Wars, the U.S. Military Will Have Nowhere to Hide.  

Foreign Policy, November 20, 2019.

The United States Should Fear a Faltering China. 

Foreign Affairs, October 28, 2019.

  • Selected as one of the 10 best web articles of 2019 by Foreign Affairs.  

Stop Obsessing about China.

Foreign Affairs, September 21, 2018.

  • Selected as one of the 10 best web articles of 2018 by Foreign Affairs.  

 

How America Can Build a Durable Military Balance in Asia.

The Interpreter, December 6, 2017. 

Balancing China.

War on the Rocks, November 15, 2017.

Enforcing International Law in the South China Sea. 

RSIS Commentary, October 6, 2016.

The Myth of Entangling Alliances.

War on the Rocks, June 9, 2015.

Will This Be China’s Century?

Congressional Quarterly Researcher, 2014.

China and Pakistan: Fair-Weather Friends. 

Yale Journal of International Affairs, 2014.

How Big a Competitive Threat Is China, Really?

Harvard Business Review, February 29, 2012.


Defining Decline. 

Washington Post, February 6, 2012.

U.S.-China: Measuring Decline and Rise. 

The Interpreter, 2012.

China Is Rising But Not Catching Up.

Christian Science Monitor, December 14, 2011.

The End of the Beginning: Why Bush and Rumsfeld Don’t Promise an Early Exit from Iraq.

Weekly Standard, April 15, 2005.

NATO’s Afghan Failure Will Hurt Europe.

Financial Times, September 30, 2004.

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